The most-shorted stocks outran hedge funds’ favourite longs before the Fed, while the Fed’s Williams saw no need for a 2027 hike. Semis led a rally fewer than half the S&P 500 joined; tomorrow’s Fed and hyperscaler prints meet a market holding few hedges.
Author: Sam Wang
Cambridge Sigma Daily — 26 Oct 2026: Colombia’s peso posts a new record move; chips bounce as shorts cover
Colombia’s peso had its most extreme day in our record and chips led a short-covering bounce as reports of Iran peace talks pulled crude back below $100. The risk: a crowded short book, a hawkish Fed and two megacap prints all land Wednesday.
Cambridge Sigma Weekly — 25 Oct 2026: The giants sold, the average stock bought: a market changes hands
Hedge funds cut their favourite bets week, and the result was a market that rose underneath a falling index. From Meta’s cash to France’s bonds to gold, the week’s stories share one cause: crowded money leaving crowded rooms, days before a Fed that isn’t done.
Cambridge Sigma Daily — 23 Oct 2026: Fresh Iran threats send oil and energy stocks to highs as the S&P cracks
US-Israeli threats against Iran put the war premium back into crude and lifted only energy shares, while the S&P 500 slipped through its September floor and bonds sold with it. The risk is a weekend escalation hitting a tape short gamma into Tuesday’s Fed.
Cambridge Sigma Daily — 22 Oct 2026: Europe’s riots spread as a chip rout drives a haven rush into Treasuries
Riots spread from France and Belgium to Albania while a Lam Research miss and Meta spending jitters sank the Nasdaq 100 2.9%, its worst day since June. Treasuries caught the haven bid. The risk is credit, where high-yield spreads just broke an old alarm.
Cambridge Sigma Daily — 21 Oct 2026: Memory-chip cracks spread even as SpaceX’s beat drags the AI trade off the floor
SpaceX’s third-quarter beat bought back the chip complex and squeezed small caps, while crude slid as Gulf flows ran above pre-war levels. The risk is that this is a short-cover in a tape Goldman’s prime book showed hedge funds exiting as recently as Monday.
Cambridge Sigma Daily — 20 Oct 2026: The ‘Black Monday’ call died as small caps and health care bought the dip
Wall Street braced for a crash and got a rotation instead: money left chip stocks for small caps, health care and bonds. Oil faded Iran’s escalation. The risk: volatility-targeting funds are still fully loaded, and a real shock forces them to sell.
Cambridge Sigma Daily — 19 Oct 2026: Trump’s Russian diesel deal hands India leverage as chips bounce off record selling
Dip buyers snapped the chip sector’s longest losing run since 2008, but bonds did not join in: yields rose as Barclays moved to two more Fed hikes. Credit is the risk, with high-yield protection at its widest in 60 sessions.
Cambridge Sigma Weekly — 18 Oct 2026: The AI build-out is borrowed money, and this week the lenders named their price
CoreWeave’s bonds traded distressed, the chip trade got its margin call and oil pushed through a hundred dollars while the Fed refused to blink. The question has moved from what AI earns to who pays for it, and the levered builders answered first.
Cambridge Sigma Daily — 16 Oct 2026: Dan Ives calls the CoreWeave selloff overdone, and the stock falls another 12%
Dan Ives defended CoreWeave today and the stock fell 12% anyway as chips extended their longest losing streak since 2008. Unlike the HSI bottoms, there is no buying thrust and credit is widening: high-yield protection closed at its widest in three months.