Cambridge Sigma Daily — 2 Nov 2026: Rotation day: chips broke, the average stock rallied and the S&P 500 fell

Chips broke their long-term trend line and pulled the S&P 500 lower, but the average stock rallied: this was a rotation, not a rout. Crude lost its Iran premium on a diplomacy report.

Printed 20:19 without: analyst desks (terminal back 16:53)

Three things

  • The average stock beat the index. Equal weight rose while the S&P 500 fell, a gap of 1.24 points that ranks among the widest since 1990.
  • Crude's war premium cracked on diplomacy, but the war did not end. Brent's front month shows an 11.4% fall, even as Fire Watch moved a report of a burning tanker to spreading.
  • AI's funding bill moved into credit. CoreWeave's five-year CDS widened 43.4bp on Bloomberg's numbers as Oracle sold stock and bonds to pay for its capex.

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Cambridge Sigma Daily, written after the US close. For information only; not investment advice.

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